Surprise, rising players and disappointments for 2026-27

== sync, corrected by elderman == @elder_man

ESPN has brought together its six fantasy basketball analysts André André Snellings, Eric Moody, Eric Karabell, Jim McCormick, Steve Alexander and Michael F. Florio to separate the players who can perform far above their ADPs (average draft position), production-blast candidates and the most risky names for this year.

The logic of the analysis

The definition used by pundits is simple: Sleeper is the player who will comfortably exceed his ADP in ESPN's standard leagues; Breakout is one who makes a dramatic production jump and enters (or comes close to) the elite of their position for the first time; Bust is the opposite: one expected as a solid starter who must fall short of expectations.

Sleepers: Value hidden in the late wheels

Naz Reid (C/PF, Charlotte Hornets) is the name that comes up most in conversations. Sweated Sixth Man of the Year for two seasons, he lived as a disguised reserve starter in Minnesota because of the depth ahead. The trade to the Hornets opens way for the effective starting position and the player is an efficient wing-pivot, rebounder, defender and one of the best three-point shooters among the majors. Steve Alexander recalls that low free throw volume (72,8% career but only 1.6 per game last year) should not hurt, and that he played between 68 and 81 games for six straight seasons.

I 'm not going anywhere . (PF, Brooklyn Nets) saw his value drop in the two seasons with Minnesota. Unhindered on a sparse roster, Karabell projects a return to Knicks-level times: at least 24 points, 10 rebounds and 5 assists per game.

I 'm looking for Caleb Wilson . (SF, Chicago Bulls), fourth overall pick in this year's draft, comes with steam: 23.5 points, 7.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 2.5 blocks per game in the Summer League, plus training camp alongside LeBron James.

♪ I've been waiting for you (PG/SG, Orlando Magic) ceased to be a lost promise and converted more than 70% of the finishes in the bottle last season. This is Jaime Jaquez Jr. (SF/SG, Milwaukee Bucks), arrived in the trade involving Giannis Antetokounmpo and is coming off 15.4 points, 5.0 rebounds and 4.7 assists in 28.3 minutes with a 50.5 field goal percentage.

Breakouts: the expected production jumps

This is Walker Kessler. (C, Los Angeles Lakers) records solid double-doubles with more than three total touchdowns and steals and almost 70% saves but has played only 63 of a possible 162 games over the past two seasons in Utah.

In Memphis, they had a lot of people who wanted to do it. - Mm-hmm. Cedric Coward (13.6 points in 25.8 minutes as a rookie) and Scotty Pippen , Jr . He 's got a gun on him . They're set to star in a franchise rebuild, with Cameron Boozer and Zach Edey at the helm. I 'm not going anywhere . (Charlotte) has machinery destined to grow towards stellar numbers, and Kel'el Ware Alexander bets that coach Taylor Jenkins will trust him more than Erik Spoelstra did.

Dereck and Lively II (Dallas) just needs health: 98 games in three seasons, only seven last year, but as a rookie he averaged 8.8 points, 6.9 rebounds and 1.4 touchdowns with 74,7% of hits. Ace Bailey is here . (Utah), the fifth pick in the draft of 2025, grew to 26% from machining in the final two months of his rookie season, averaging 18.5 points per game.

Busts: where cheerleading can turn to disappointment

The most controversial name is LeBron James is the man . Snellings explains the difference between impact in NBA and fantasy: alongside Tyrese Maxey, Jaylen Brown, Joel Embiid and VJ Edgecombe, LeBron projects as a fourth or even fifth offensive option.

Ja Morant (Portland) has played just 79 games over the past three seasons and is coming off 19.5 points, 3.3 rebounds and a lousy 3-pointer in backcourt competition with Damian Lillard and Jrue Holiday. ♪ I'm the one who loves you... ♪ - Anthony Davis. - Oh! - (Washington) has lost at least 14 games in 10 of his 14 seasons, played more than 60 games only once in the last four years and now shares a milling machine with Trae Young and first overall pick AJ Dybantsa.

Zion Williamson (New Orleans) played 62 times and scored 21.0 points, but no three with 5.7 rebounds and 0.5 blocked shots. I 'm not going to do it . (Toronto) is drafted on average as the 26th center preço inflated price, in McCormick's view, who prefers Ware, Derik Queen, Edey and Nic Claxton, all available afterwards.

Where we are

For those choosing between two cards at the end of the draft, the list above is a map of hidden value and names with label bigger than merchandise.