Auditoria do Ranking da NBA: Brown, Brunson and what the metrics are revealing about our top 100

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The context

ESPN released its list of the 100 best players in the NBA for the 2026-27 season, assembled from seven panelists. Dean Oliver, data analyst at the network itself, used the list as a case study to show the difference between the human eye and advanced metrics such as Net Points, DARKO, LEBRON, EPM and RAPM. A phrase that sums it up: "as pessoas veem o jogo melhor que os números, mas os números veem todos os jogos".

This is a ranking error.

Jalen Brunson (no. 6) o efeito "campeão" He is the only player to have scored a hat-trick in all competitions

Brunson led the New York Knicks to a fourth-place finish in Game 5 and was seeded sixth. The problem, according to recent models, is that his height of 6 feet 4 inches (1.90 m) and weight of about 185 pounds (86 kg) continue to limit his defense, and as metrics project something around 25th place for the regular season, he's an elite player who isn't necessarily the best sixth man in the league.

Jaylen Brown (No. 14) o major descolamento

Here's the biggest difference between right and left. The panelists ranked Brown 9th to 23rd; his average was near 60th place. As quick justifications: the Boston Celtics played better without him on the court, he lost many balls and didn't have a good view of the game. "Best two-way player" came especially after a great performance against Kawhi Leonard's LA Clippers in which Brown scored 14 points with 24 rushing attempts.

The novatos can be hype too

AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer and Caleb Wilson all entered the top 100. Oliver recalled that pre-draft highlights don't show turnovers, missed rebounds or poor defense and novatos are historically bad players in the NBA.

Collin Murray-Boyles for the list

The second year of the Toronto Raptors was outside the top 100 and computers do not agree: as metrics we see a level of production comparable to Jalen Johnson, from the Atlanta Hawks, who is 22nd in the NBA Rank. Murray-Boyles isn't the passer that Johnson became, but defends well, rebounds and, as a rookie, had average assists by 48 minutes higher than Johnson himself in each of his first two years. Without publicity from Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper or Kon Knueppel, of the same class of 2025, he did not receive enough votes.

O that o ranking acertou

The rise and fall of Banchero

Much of the top 20 is based on metrics a general perception about good players converged with data throughout the analytical revolution. Paolo Banchero is an example of correction: dropped from 17th in 2025 to 36th in 2026.

Ajay Mitchell underestimated

The Oklahoma City Guardian ranks 79th on the list, but appears in the top 30 by several metrics and according to Genius IQ tracking is in the Top 20 for points scored per 100 matches allowed.

O factor of lesão

Voters captured well the uncertainty surrounding who suffered injuries or is still recovering: Jayson Tatum, Tyrese Haliburton, Damian Lillard, Jimmy Butler III and Joel Embiid have a much smaller contribution predictability.

Where are we ?

With the top 100 complete, most of the panel is right on top, but metrics point to plausible corrections: Brunson above expectations, Brown very high, Mitchell and Murray-Boyles below.