Australia against Brazil: Ancelotti follows the same pattern as in recent games after World Cup left on high alert

♪ I've been waiting for you ♪

A new era has begun against Australia

After Norway's elimination from the 2026 World Cup, Carlo Ancelotti took charge of the Brazilian national team on Friday (25), against Australia in the first game of a new cycle.

A torcida espera, acima de tudo, a sensação que uma nova história começou. Mas o Brasil já viu esse filme e as primeiras partidas dos últimos cinco ciclos de Copa mostram um padrão that pode preoccupar-se. But Brazil has already seen this film and the first matches of the last five cycles of Copa show a pattern which can worry us.

2006: o aviso by Daniel Carvalho

Dunga não rompeu completamente com o passado: a equipe misturou veterans to nomes that stayed in the background not World Cup. Robinho, Cicinho and Fred were headliners, Gomes assumed or goal, Elano appeared no meio and Daniel Carvalho won vaga no time titular. No second tempo, entered Maicon, Dudu Cearense, Júlio Baptista and Vágner Love.

Daniel Carvalho scored a brazilian goal and it seemed to be exactly the kind of discovery that a post-Copa reset usually produces. He still played against Argentina and Switzerland in that year and closed a passagem pela Seleção with just three matches and one goal. Or message for Ancelotti: at first match é pésima para separar potencial de momento.

2010: Mano Menezes is going to open a window

Dunga opened the door, Mano Menezes scored in a 2-0 victory over Estados Unidos in New Jersey with goals from Neymar and Alexandre Pato.

NEM todos vingaram: André had four matches between 2010 and 2011, Jucilei apenas duas. Mas a diferença em relação a 2006 está no que aconteceu com os principais nomes Neymar virou o nome da geração, David Luiz became the pillar of the following years, e Pato, mesmo sem corresponder às expectativas, chegou a 27 jogos e disputou uma Copa das Confederações.

2014: a continuidade que revelou dependência (continuity that was revealed by dependency)

After the traumatic 7-1, Dunga returned to charge and opted for a 1-0 victory over Colombia in Miami, with little news: Coutinho and Marquinhos entered no second tempo, and what remained was essentially the same geração that had failed months earlier.

O problema não foi apenas não renovar, mas a dependência revelada: o Brazil precisou de Neymar, mais uma vez, to resolve at the start. O craque apareceu, marcou, e a vitória permitiu que o novo ciclo começasse sem cobrança imediata. A lição para Ancelotti é dupla: renovação não significa trocar dez jogadores, mas também não pode ser apenas manter os mesmos protagonistas. The problem was not just that he didn't renew his contract, but also that it wasn't possible for him to retain the same players.

2018: or Tite's balance, or model to follow

A 2 - 0 victory over the United States, with a reliable base maintained and controlled additions: Fabinho appeared as a right-winger in no time titular, e Arthur, Lucas Paquetá e Richarlison entraram no segundo tempo, além de Éverton Cebolinha. Todos seriam peças relevantes nos anos seguintes e campeões da Copa América de 2019. It is the best example of como equilibrar duas necessidades que costumam entrar em conflito (how to balance two needs that often come into conflict).

2022/23: or maximum alert by Ramon Menezes

Eliminated by non-Qatar side CRO and without a contract, CBF used interim Ramon Menezes to face Morocco in March 2023. Defeat 2-1, more or less: Rony started as a starter, Rodrygo centralized, Andrey Santos, then just 18 years old, was the starter, and Emerson Royal, Ibañez and Alex Telles were part of the defense.

Years later, the call-up seemed almost ironic: none of that match's nine starters were called up for the 2026 Copa.

Where Ancelotti fits into the historical record

Ancelotti's Brazil arrives in Australia repeating several elements of these stories: frustrating elimination, declared need for renewal and a group that mixes established players with athletes still discovering where we can reach. Differential: part of the renewal comes from the wave or Brazilian fan is used to procuring it. Breno Bidon, Gabriel Bontempo, Martinelli, Pedro Morisco, Matheuzinho and Arthur Dias are accompanied weekly by quem assiste ao Brasileirão.

The enthusiasm is natural entusias presenting players to the whole country is one of Seleção's cultural functions. The danger begins when the call-up is confused with consecration. Breno Bidon does not need to be treated as a future starter; Bontempo doesn't need to carry the burden of being the next great Brazilian midfielder by receiving an opportunity at 21 years old. It was like this for Daniel Carvalho, André, Jucilei and Rony: minutes of fame in the Seleção, then the realization that the level required to stay is much higher than what is needed to get called up for the first time.

Where are we ?

O jogo contra a Austrália nesta sexta-feira (25) é, antes de tudo, um teste de observação não uma sentença. O histórico das últimas cinco reestreias mostra that o caminho de Tite, em 2018, vale mas que o excesso de Ramon Menezes ou a estagnação de Dunga em 2014. Nove estreantes entraram na lista; quem dessas caras novas (e velhas) ainda estará no radar rumo a 2030, só o tempo e os próximos jogos vão dizer. The game against Australia this Friday (25th) is, before all else, an observation test - it's not a sentence - but the history of the last five games shows that Tito's path in 2018 was worth more than Ramón Méndez's excess or Dunga's stagnation in 2014.[1]